Space plane and ejector risks

Risk is never a purely rational process, but is very much a question of perspective. When two options were evaluated for the safety of the astronauts in the case of a serious incident of the space plane, there were heated discussions about which option to choose.  One solution was to eject an entire module, and the other alternative would mean ejecting three separate seats, one for each astronaut. 

The chance of survival for each astronaut in the case of the single module was estimated at 90%, where as the ejector seats gave a chance of survival of 95% for each astronaut individually, but only 86% (0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95) for all three together.  Thus, on the one hand it was better for the individual astronaut, and on the other there would be a smaller probability of tragedy. For if one astronaut should die, then from the mission point of view it's a failure. 

But, what about the astronauts?  The astronauts reply was unanimous. “If we have to pilot a fighter plane for ten years, there's much more risk than for one space plane mission.” “You do what you think is best for the programme.”


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Metanaction.com : Ian Stokes, Project Leader and Advisor


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